When Alliances Flip
James Quillian, Economist, Political Analyst, Natural Law
In 1815, Napoleon Bonaparte returned from exile with a handful of loyal soldiers and a gamble. The French monarchy sent an entire regiment to arrest him. Instead of resisting, Napoleon walked toward the leveled muskets, opened his coat, and told the soldiers to shoot their emperor if they wished. They didn’t. They defected on the spot. Within days, the entire French army followed, and the Bourbon government collapsed without a battle.
That moment is more than a dramatic footnote. It is a reminder that alliances—especially military ones—are never as solid as they appear. They hold only as long as the underlying loyalties, fears, and incentives remain aligned. When those shift, armies, governments, and entire regions can flip overnight.