The Case For A Long War
By, James Quillian, Economist Political Analyst, Natural Law

The best question that can be asked before entertaining any others is why start the war right now, six months before the November elections. Congress is a club where every member has dirt on every other member, some unrelated to Epstein. Few, if any, are safe from the impact of the Epstein files. This is similar to a Nash equilibrium: each player protects himself because any deviation risks catastrophe. Given such a dire situation, there is remarkably little noise coming out of Washington. If preventing a disaster were the goal, lawmakers would be outraged and showing it.

Anyone who believes that any incentive other than self‑interest guides the behavior of leaders simply cannot cope with the truth about human nature. Chances are the war will bog down until after the election.

I doubt that any of us will find answers until after the election, when leaders are able to speak more freely. One thing is obvious: dialog about Epstein has disappeared. By November, the public may be bored with crises and controversy.

Who wins the war is less important than who profits from a prolonged war. According to reporting and public analysis, defense‑industry entities stand to benefit from extended conflict. Some observers also note that Russia is profiting from high and rising oil prices. The U.S. oil industry benefits from the same price environment. The United States produces roughly ten percent of the refined rare‑earth minerals used in batteries and electronics, and a prolonged conflict increases the strategic value of those materials. The more one thinks about it, the longer the list gets.

As time goes by, the more profits derive from the war, the more power shifts toward the parties benefiting from the war. Incentives to continue a war increase as profits from it increase. That does not mean profits overall increase; they don’t and won’t. It comes down to who profits and who doesn’t. Wars never end. A war that ends generates more wars in the future based on outcomes that never generate peace. The power struggle is eternal.

The losers in a long‑term war are obvious: members of the great unwashed. Yet they continue to trust government because trust in authority is inborn. As time passes, the public adapts and gets used to its new normal.